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The Top 30:
 
Grading the Oscar Winner Predictors

The standings on the left are an attempt at seeing how the Oscar winner predictors did at predicting the actual Oscar winners.

This list was created with those predictors with the highest number of correctly predicted winners ranked highest. When a tie was determined, an attempt at breaking that tie was made by determining the percentage correct of those predator's predictions. When ties still existed, those ties were broken by the predictor's predicted top eight category prediction percentage. Even still, ties remain. We can now either stick with the ties or break them with the winner of future fist fights.

Both myself and Sid, of The Oscar Race, tied for "first place" with seventeen correct predictions each. I must admit I feel odd listing myself for a tied first place ranking but the numbers and our individual prediction websites, speak for themselves. In an odd coincidence, both Sid and myself correctly predicted the same categories correctly or incorrectly. Additionally, we both incorrectly predicted the Original Song category, Sid predicted Gangs of New York and I Chicago. Joe Parker actually had the highest prediction percentage, seventy six percent to Sid and my seventy one, but he provided predictions for only twenty one out of twenty four categories.

Zeusefer and Jason O' Brien were the only two, of the top thirty predictors (Gene Seymour was the only other person in the pack of forty eight) to correctly predict Brody's Best Actor win. Zeusefer receives an additional honorable mention for being the only person, of the chart's forty eight, to correctly predict the upset Original Song category. In addition, Wesley Lovell was the only predictor to correctly predict
the Live Action Short category.

I find it interesting to note, in addition,that six of the twenty four categories appear to have been predicted unanimously by those who predicted the specific categories. Half unanimously predicted correctly (Picture, Visual Effects and Makeup) and the other three incorrectly (Director, Adapted Screenplay and Score).

Please, keep in mind that this is by no means a scientific standing and was determined only from the 48 prediction lists featured below. Also below you will find what is believed to be an accurate reading of the final Oscar winner predictions of these forty eight predictors. Though I've tried to remain as accurate as I can, these standings and the snapshot below may very well contain errors and miscalculations. Please send comments, corrections and updates to mark@oscarcentral.com.


- Mark Bakalor

Rank
Source
#
1.
Mark Bakalor
17
1.
Sid (The Oscar Race)
17
3.
Joe Parker (Movie Thoughts)
16
4.
Kris Tapley
16
4.
Q (Academy Award Speculation)
16
4.
Harris/Karger (Entertainment Weekly)
16
7.
Jason O' Brien (Suite 101)
15
8.
Wesley Lovell (The Oscar Guy)
15
9.
Sasha Stone (Oscar Watch)
15
10.
Edward Guthmann (S.F. Chronicle)
14
     
11.
Robert Licuria (Awards Heaven)
14
12.
Nathaniel Rogers (Film Experience)
14
12.
Zeusefer (Oscar Charts)
14
12.
Jack Mathews (N.Y. Daily News)
14
15.
Oscar Watch
13
16.
Sijmen (Oscar Experiment)
13
16.
Academy Tracker (Variety)
13
16.
Jami Bernard (N.Y. Daily News)
13
19.
Peter Howard (Toronto Star)
12
20.
Scott Braun (Oscar Watch)
12
     
21.
Joe (NZone)
11
22.
Andy (Everything Oscar)
11
23.
Daniel Kenealy (Oscar Watch)
11
24.
David Poland (Movie City News)
10
25.
Roger Ebert (Chicago Sun Times)
10
26.
Neil Young (Jigsaw Lounge)
10
27.
William Arnold (Seattle Post)
9
28.
Jon (NZone)
9
29.
Laurence Station (Shaking Through)
9
30.
Kenneth Turan (L.A. Times)
6

Source
All %
Top 8 %
Picture
Actor
Actress
S. Actor
S. Actress
Original Screenplay
Adapt. Screenplay
Director
Anim. Feature
Foreign Film
Cinematography
Art Direction
Visual Effects
Costume Design
Make-Up
Film Editing
Score
Song
Sound Design
Sound Editing
Doc. Short
Doc. Feature
Anim. Short
Live Action Short
Oscar Watch
62% (13/21)
38% (3/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Zellwegger
Walken
Zeta-Jones
Talk to Her
The Hours
Marshall
Spirited Away
Nowhere in Africa
Road to Perdition
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Gangs of New York
Far From Heaven
Chicago
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
-
Bowling For Columbine
-
-
Kenneth Turan (L.A. Times)
60% (6/10)
50% (4/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Greek Wedding
The Hours
Marshall
-
Nowhere in Africa
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Bowling for Columbine
-
-
Manohla Dargis (L.A. Times)
50% (5/10)
38% (3/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Walken
Zeta-Jones
Gangs of New York
The Hours
Marshall
-
Nowhere in Africa
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Bowling for Columbine
-
-
David Poland (Movie City News)
50% (10/20)
38% (3/8)
Chicago
Nicholson
Kidman
Walken
Zeta-Jones
Greek Wedding
The Hours
Marshall
Lilo & Stitch
Nowhere in Africa
Road to Perdition
Gangs of New York
-
Chicago
Frida
The Hours
Catch Me If You Can
Chicago
-
-
Twin Towers
Bowling for Columbine
The ChubbChubbs
-
Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby)
50% (4/8)
50% (4/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Zellweger
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Talk to Her
The Hours
Marshall
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Roger Ebert (Chicago Sun Times)
45% (10/22)
38% (3/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Cooper
Bates
Far From Heaven
The Hours
Scorsese
Lilo & Stitch
Nowhere in Africa
Road to Perdition
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
The Hours
The Hours
Chicago
Chicago
Minority Report
Mighty Times
Bowling for Columbine
-
-
Sasha Stone (Oscar Watch)
63% (15/24)
50% (4/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Cooper
Streep
Talk to Her
The Hours
Marshall
Spirited Away
Nowhere in Africa
Road to Perdition
Frida
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Gangs of New York
Far From Heaven
Chicago
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
Twin Towers
Bowling for Columbine
Mike's New Car
Johny Flynton
Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly)
63% (5/8)
63% (5/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Talk to Her
The Hours
Marshall
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Gene Seymour (Newsday)
63% (5/8)
63% (5/8)
Chicago
Brody
Kidman
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Talk to Her
The Hours
Marshall
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Thelma Adams (US Weekly)
50% (4/8)
50% (4/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Walken
Zeta-Jones
Talk to Her
The Hours
Marshall
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dave Germaine (AP)
50% (4/8)
50% (4/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Far From Heaven
Adaptation
Scorsese
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clarence Turak (Oscar Watch)
25% (2/8)
25% (2/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Moore
Walken
Zeta-Jones
Y Tu Mama
About a Boy
Marshall
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Anne Thompson (Premiere)
50% (4/8)
50% (4/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Walken
Zeta-Jones
Talk to Her
The Hours
Marshall
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Neil Young (Jigsaw Lounge)
42% (10/24)
38% (3/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Walken
Zeta-Jones
Greek Wedding
The Hours
Marshall
Lilo & Stitch
The Man Without A Past
Road to Perdition
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Chicago
The Hours
Chicago
Chicago
Minority Report
Mighty Times
Prisoner of Paradise
Das Rad
I'll Wait for the Next One
Paul Clinton (CNN)
33% (2/6)
33% (2/6)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Zellweger
Walken
Zeta-Jones
-
-
Marshall
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Robert Licuria (Awards Heaven)
58% (14/24)
63% (5/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Talk to Her
The Hours
Marshall
Spirited Away
The Man Without A Past
Road to Perdition
Lord of the Rings
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Chicago
The Hours
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Lord of the Rings
Twin Towers
Spellbound
The ChubbChubbs
Inja (Dog)
Scott Braun (Oscar Watch)
50% (12/24)
25% (2/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Moore
Harris
Zeta-Jones
Far From Heaven
The Hours
Marshall
Spirited Away
Nowhere in Africa
Road to Perdition
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
The Hours
The Hours
Gangs of New York
Chicago
Minority Report
Twin Towers
Bowling for Columbine
The ChubbChubbs
I'll Wait for the Next One
Mark Bakalor
71% (17/24)
63% (5/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Talk to Her
The Hours
Marshall
Spirited Away
Nowhere in Africa
Road to Perdition
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Chicago
The Hours
Chicago
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
Twin Towers
Bowling for Columbine
The ChubbChubbs
Inja (Dog)
Andy (Everything Oscar)
58% (11/19)
50% (4/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Zellweger
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Talk to Her
The Hours
Marshall
Lilo & Stitch
-
Road to Perdition
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Chicago
The Hours
Chicago
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
-
-
-
-
Kris Tapley
67% (16/24)
63% (5/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Talk to Her
The Hours
Marshall
Lilo & Stitch
Nowhere in Africa
Road to Perdition
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Chicago
Far From Heaven
Chicago
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
Twin Towers
Bowling for Columbine
The ChubbChubbs
Inja (Dog)
Nathaniel Rogers (Film Experience)
58% (14/24)
50% (4/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Greek Wedding
The Hours
Marshall
Ice Age
Nowhere in Africa
Road to Perdition
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Chicago
The Hours
Gangs of New York
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
Twin Towers
Spellbound
The ChubbChubbs
Johny Flynton
Sijmen (Oscar Experiment)
54% (13/24)
50% (4/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Zellweger
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Talk to Her
The Hours
Marshall
Lilo & Stitch
Nowhere in Africa
Road to Perdition
Road to Perdition
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Chicago
The Hours
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
Lord of the Rings
Mighty Times
Bowling for Columbine
The ChubbChubbs
Inja (Dog)
Zeusefer (Oscar Charts)
58% (14/24)
50% (4/8)
Chicago
Brody
Zellweger
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Greek Wedding
Adaptation
Marshall
Spirited Away
Nowhere in Africa
Far From Heaven
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Chicago
The Hours
8 Mile
Road to Perdition
Lord of the Rings
Twin Towers
Bowling for Columbine
Mike's New Car
Inja (Dog)
Joe Parker (Movie Thoughts)
76% (16/21)
63% (5/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Talk to Her
The Hours
Marshall
Spirited Away
Nowhere in Africa
Road to Perdition
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Chicago
The Hours
Gangs of New York
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
-
Bowling for Columbine
-
-
Wesley Lovell (The Oscar Guy)
63% (15/24)
38% (3/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Zellweger
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Far From Heaven
The Hours
Marshall
Spirited Away
Nowhere in Africa
Road to Perdition
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Chicago
Catch Me If You Can
Chicago
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
Twin Towers
Bowling for Columbine
Mike's New Car
The Charming Man
Joe (NZone)
58% (11/19)
63% (5/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Talk to Her
Adaptation
Scorsese
Lilo & Stitch
-
Road to Perdition
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Lord of the Rings
-
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Lord of the Rings
-
Bowling for Columbine
-
-
Jon (NZone)
43% (9/21)
50% (4/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Harris
Zeta-Jones
Greek Wedding
Adaptation
Scorsese
Lilo & Stitch
Nowhere in Africa
Road to Perdition
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
The Hours
The Hours
Chicago
Road to Perdition
Lord of the Rings
-
Spellbound
-
-
Dean (NZone)
25% (2/8)
25% (2/8)
Chicago
Nicholson
Kidman
Newman
Streep
Far From Heaven
The Hours
Scorsese
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Edward Guthmann (S.F. Chronicle)
64% (14/22)
50% (4/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Zellweger
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Talk to Her
The Hours
Marshall
Spirited Away
Nowhere in Africa
Chicago
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Chicago
The Hours
Gangs of New York
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
Twin Towers
Bowling for Columbine
-
-
Anderson Jones (E!)
38% (3/8)
38% (3/8)
Chicago
Nicholson
Zellweger
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Far From Heaven
The Hours
Marshall
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Award Options (HSX)
56% (5/9)
50% (4/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Greek Wedding
Adaptation
Scorsese
Spirited Away
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Q (Academy Award Speculation)
67% (16/24)
63% (5/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Talk to Her
The Hours
Scorsese
Spirited Away
Nowhere in Africa
Road to Perdition
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Chicago
Far From Heaven
Gangs of New York
Road to Perdition
Lord of the Rings
Twin Towers
Bowling for Columbine
The ChubbChubbs
Johny Flynton
Sid (The Oscar Race)
71% (17/24)
63% (5/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Talk to Her
The Hours
Marshall
Spirited Away
Nowhere in Africa
Road to Perdition
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Chicago
The Hours
Gangs of New York
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
Twin Towers
Bowling for Columbine
The ChubbChubbs
Inja (Dog)
Academy Tracker (Variety)
54% (13/24)
50% (4/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Far From Heaven
The Hours
Scorsese
Spirited Away
The Crime of Father Amaro
Road to Perdition
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Chicago
The Hours
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Lord of the Rings
Twin Towers
Bowling for Columbine
Cathedral
Mike's New Car
I'll Wait for the Next One
Laurence Station (Shaking Through)
45% (9/20)
38% (3/8)
Chicago
Nicholson
Kidman
Cooper
Streep
Greek Wedding
Adaptation
Marshall
Spirited Away
Nowhere in Africa
Gangs of New York
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Lord of the Rings
Far From Heaven
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
Minority Report
-
-
-
-
Moira Macdonald (Seattle Times)
44% (4/9)
38% (3/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Walken
Zeta-Jones
Greek Wedding
Chicago
Scorsese
-
-
Road to Perdition
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Harris/Karger (Entertainment Weekly)
67% (16/24)
63% (5/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Talk to Her
The Hours
Marshall
Ice Age
Nowhere in Africa
Road to Perdition
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
Gangs of New York
Frida
Chicago
Catch Me If You Can
Gangs of New York
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
Twin Towers
Bowling for Columbine
The ChubbChubbs
Inja (Dog)
William Arnold (Seattle Post)
53% (9/17)
50% (4/8)
Chicago
Nicholson
Kidman
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Greek Wedding
Adaptation
Marshall
Spirited Away
-
Road to Perdition
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
-
Frida
The Hours
Far From Heaven
Gangs of New York
-
-
-
Bowling for Columbine
-
-
Jami Bernard (N.Y. Daily News)
54% (13/24)
38% (3/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Walken
Zeta-Jones
Far From Heaven
Adaptation
Scorsese
Spirited Away
Nowhere in Africa
Road to Perdition
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Chicago
Far From Heaven
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
Lord of the Rings
Mighty Times
Bowling for Columbine
The ChubbChubbs
Johny Flynton
Jack Mathews (N.Y. Daily News)
58% (14/24)
50% (4/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Lane
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Talk to Her
The Hours
Marshall
Spirited Away
Nowhere in Africa
Road to Perdition
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Gangs of New York
Frida
Chicago
The Hours
Chicago
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
Mighty Times
Bowling for Columbine
The ChubbChubbs
Inja (Dog)
Jason O' Brien (Suite 101)
63% (15/24)
63% (5/8)
Chicago
Brody
Kidman
Cooper
Moore
Talk to Her
The Hours
Scorsese
Spirited Away
Nowhere in Africa
Road to Perdition
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Chicago
The Hours
Gangs of New York
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
Mighty Times
Bowling for Columbine
Mike's New Car
Johny Flynton
Bill Muller (Arizona Republic)
57% (4/7)
67% (4/6)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
-
-
Marshall
-
The Crime of Father Amaro
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Stephen Whitty (N.J. Star Ledger)
33% (2/6)
33% (2/6)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Zellweger
Cooper
Streep
-
-
Marshall
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Jan Wahl (San Francisco Examiner)
40% (4/10)
38% (3/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Walken
Zeta-Jones
Far From Heaven
Chicago
Marshall
-
The Crime of Father Amaro
Road to Perdition
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Daniel Kenealy (Oscar Watch)
46% (11/24)
38% (3/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Zellweger
Cooper
Moore
Talk to Her
The Hours
Marshall
Spirited Away
Nowhere in Africa
Gangs of New York
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings
Chicago
Frida
Chicago
Far From Heaven
Chicago
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
Bedford Street
Spellbound
Mike's New Car
Inja (Dog)
Peter Howard (Toronto Star)
60% (12/20)
50% (4/8)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
Gangs of New York
The Hours
Marshall
Spirited Away
Nowhere in Africa
Road to Perdition
Lord of the Rings
Lord of the Rings
-
Frida
-
Far From Heaven
Chicago
Lord of the Rings
Lord of the Rings
Twin Towers
Bowling for Columbine
-
-
The Age, Australia
42% (5/12)
38% (3/8)
Chicago
Caine
Kidman
Cooper
Streep
Far From Heaven
Adaptation
Marshall
Spirited Away
-
Far From Heaven
-
-
-
-
Chicago
The Hours
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Stephen Truggs (NW Indiana Times)
63% (5/8)
57% (4/7)
Chicago
Day-Lewis
Kidman
Cooper
Zeta-Jones
-
The Hours
Marshall
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Bowling for Columbine
-
-
% Correct Averages -->
53.5%
48%
100%
6%
69%
71%
83%
48%
0%
0%
68%
83%
84%
17%
100%
93%
100%
69%
0%
3%
63%
88%
68%
83%
63%
6%

Last Updated March, 24 2003 @ 11:24am (PT)